Why the Conservatives and the PM need an election now to save themselves.

Elections for Canada - October 2008

Some high profile Conservatives are not seeking re-election. Do they see the title wave coming? Are they afraid? The real reason the federal Conservatives are calling for an election now is that they really do not have a choice. What do I mean by that? Let’s make just a few points.

1. The longer they wait, the better chance they will loose even more seats next year, pending the coming downturn in the economy. In case your head is stuck in the sand somewhere, the economy is not doing well.

2. The numbers for the Conservatives are still strong in Quebec and they have a chance to grab some seats in Ontario. The election may affect the Liberals more than the Conservatives.

3. The Honourable Stéphane Dion polling numbers are not strong. However, that is slowly changing and they need to go to the polls now, rather than later. The longer they wait, the more “sympathy” for Dion. I believe that the Conservatives will stay away from poking fun at Dion, because this stragedy does not help. They will will HAVE TO focus on making the PM more personal to win.

4. Prime Minister Stephen Harper is betting that their low-profile governance will help them at the polls. To be honest, there is not much news and “substance” to go on. People tend to figure, if it is not broken why fix it, to be frank.

5. The overall view is, when the economy is in a downturn, you need a “fiscally conservative” approach. That is a perception that has not changed much. This is probably what did in the government of Bob Rae in Ontario, leading to the extreme right in the Harris “common sense revolution. Again, I have already said it, but the PM does not want to have the stain of being the government that caused a ressession. Even though it would not be true, it does not really matter. Its all about perception.

6. The western provinces are doing well, so “milk it while we have a chance to”, because the Greens are coming!

7. The George Bush factor! Need I say more, as November approaches? If people believe that they have become a bit too “neo-conservative”, than the Conservatives are in trouble, especially in Ontario and Quebec. So go now while we are “a sleep at the wheel”.

8. The PM needs an election fast, before the historic election in the U.S. It is a fact the a huge amount of Canadian’s are watching the American election. No matter what you think the Conservatives “DO NOT” want to be caught in the “change title wave” that is approaching. If they do, they will basically drown in the possible Obama factor, no matter what side of the fence you are on.

The fact is the only point the Conservatives are riding is the fact that they can say “the Green Shift is not a prudent policy for the coming economic downturn”. While, offering no option of their own, they are “fear mongering” people into thinking that this is all about raising taxes. This is a dangerous gamble, seeing that people list the environment as an important factor, despite economics. Now make no assumption, I am not a Liberal member. To be honest, if there was a viable Libertarian Party I would go down that route (albeit I do like the Greens a bit). But that is besides the fact! There is a burning ship in parliament, and the Conservatives are doing what ANY party would attempt to do. Get a few more years and hope, you can ride the possible recession out. Maybe even a possible Liberal, NDP leadership review and like magic call another election. We will probably see another Conservative minority. Who really knows? This election may end up hurting the Liberals, more than the Conservatives and the NDP or Green Party may make substantial strides in politics this time around. The question is, at who’s expense? What will happen if Canadian’s want change? Can any leader capitalize on this? Or is this a bit of Russian roulette? I welcome your comments!

By Andy MJ
a.k.a the G.T.A Patriot

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Battle over Canadian big-brother copyright bill C61

OTTAWA — Critics of the Harper government’s proposed changes to the Copyright Act have launched a cyber crusade to fight the controversial bill.

They’re using everything from Facebook to YouTube to Wikipedia to blogs to get their message out. They want the government to either scrap or make serious amendments to Bill C-61 when Parliament resumes next month.

At the helm of the digital movement is Michael Geist, a professor at the University of Ottawa who specializes in Internet and e-commerce law. In addition to his own blog, Geist runs a Facebook group called Fair Copyright for Canada that boasts 90,000 members.

The group, which was created in December, has become so large that members have created local chapters by city and riding to better organize their efforts. Many of the local groups have also developed wikis – online encyclopedic web pages – to keep their members informed.

Geist said more Canadians are getting involved because they recognize how the proposed reforms could affect their daily lives.

“We’re talking about more than just copyright here. We’re talking about the digital environment,” he said. “This legislation represents a real threat to the vibrancy of that online environment.”

Industry Minister Jim Prentice introduced the bill in June, calling it a “made-in-Canada” solution to online piracy. But critics responded that the bill was a carbon copy of the American Digital Millennium Copyright Act.

If passed, Bill C-61 would make it illegal to circumvent “digital locks” on CDs and DVDs and impose a $500 fine on anyone caught downloading illegal copies of music or movies.

Geist also launched a video contest on YouTube inviting Canadians to give their thoughts on Bill C-61 in 61 seconds. A panel of five judges, including Ontario Privacy Commissioner Anne Cavoukian, will announce the winner on Sept. 15 – the day MPs return to the House of Commons.

An Industry Canada spokeswoman said Prentice is interested to see the number of Canadians involved in the online discussions, but it’s up to Parliament to study the issue further.

“The activity online proves that a broad range of stakeholders, with varying interests and vantage points, care deeply about this issue,” said Stefanie Power, in an email response.

The movement isn’t confined to the digital world. The online protests have spurred offline activism.

Kempton Lam, a business consultant from Calgary, used his blog and Facebook to organize a rally outside a breakfast hosted by Prentice last month. Lam said the online discussions have fuelled potential activists.

“There are so many Canadians that have issues will this bill,” he said. “And the online forum has helped us get informed, which leads to offline rallies.

“After we meet, members write about what we learned, post videos back on to the blogs and Facebook group.”

Members of the online movement are also trying to make their voices heard through letter-writing campaigns and one-on-one meetings with local MPs.

Liberal MP Sukh Dhaliwal held a town hall meeting last month to discuss the controversial legislation after his office was flooded with letters from concerned constituents.

It’s not the first time this digital community has bared its teeth. The Conservative government was slated to introduce the reforms in December but delayed the bill after heavy criticism flooded the blogosphere.

Geist said he is optimistic that the activism will make a difference.

“When you get tens of thousands of Canadians speaking out like this, there’s big political risk for any political party who chooses to ignore it,” he warned.

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Conservatives in Ontario defeated themselves in the 2007 Ontario election

The real losers of the election were the conservatives. However, they really were not defeated by the Liberals. The conservatives actually defeated themselves. Why do you say? (1) They selected to attack Dalton McGuinty constantly during the election did not help. We already knew that Dalton McGuinty broke promises; however he did say that he would let Ontarians judge him. He also said many times “we are still working on that”. He effectively diffused any criticism by appearing to take the higher ground. (2) Faith-based funding was a bad misread. Essentially they failed to realize that people were generally either afraid of Islamic schools (ignorance of the voter of course) in receiving funding or worried about the health of our public schools in the province. I will not get into an argument on whether we should or should not fund religious schools, but the fear in Ontarians was there. They should have known that Ontarians were simply not ready to deal with the problem, not matter how worthy the cause. (3) A failure to articulate what the PC Party would do for the province of Ontario. Somehow the message was not heard by the public; maybe to no fault of their own? Maybe it was the media? Nevertheless, the message did not resonate with voters. (4) Finally, at this is the biggest, the destructive elements within the PC Party who essentially did not like John Tory in the first place. There was a movement to “Vote for the Tories, not Tory”. This was a direct aim at the leader from neo-conservatives in the party that want to go back to the Harris years of power. Love them or hate them, they do exist. It is not fiction! Right-wing elements of the Progressive Conservative party that want to make it “less progressive”. Unfortunately, in the end the PC Party can only look in the mirror for reasons. PC support was not unified and a large majority of conservatives decided to just sit on the hands and stay home. John Tory is still seen in a positive light, and an honest person, even amongst non-conservatives in the province. Even Bill Murdoch, conservative MPP, was challenged by the ever-increasing popularity of the Green Party. With there influence spent and the ever shrinking power based ruralized, the future may get bleak for conservatives. If the PC’s decide to go the neo-conservative route, and it plays out in the public eye as an “internal turf” of their leader, it maybe many years before they ever hold the seat of power in Ontario again.

 

By: Andy MJ
a.k.a “The GTA Patriot”
Toronto, Ontario